To select the aircraft and the preliminary design targets, we have to look at the results of the previous chapters and at the competition at the time of entry into the market.
Results of previous chapters for the preliminary design targets:
- There is a theoretical need for 860 UHCA-type aircraft (335 at the size of 600 seats and 525 at the size of 800 seats).
- There are routes with extremely high frequencies.
- The timing of the requirement is the beginning of next century
- Most of the airlines want an aircraft with 600 seats, offerin a range of 7OOOnm.
- There is a follow-on requirement for an 800 seater with 6000nm range.
- There is a size problem with span and length. Airports have to expand for 80×80 m aircraft. That is not favored by airlines.
- The ovoid configuration is favored by most of the airlines.
- Freight is of secondary importance.
Competition is based on the other products available at the time of entry into the market.
- There is strong competition in the segment under 400 seats, differ in range capability.
- In the segment over 400 seats in a 3-class lay-out there is only the 747-400 with 411 seats and a range of 7250 nm.
- In the future Boeing has proposals for a 747-20 ft stretch with 471 seats in a 3-class lay-out and a possible range of 6500 nm.
- Boeing is thinking about a 747-full upper deck (FUD) with 570 seats and a range of 5500 nm (with a new wing it will have the same range as today’s 747-400).
To compete with the 747s would be difficult. High development costs would lead to a higher price than that of the 747 derivatives.
The next segment, were competition is possible, will be an aircraft with over 570 seats and a good relationship between performance and price.
Airbus with their UHCA and Boeing with their New Large Aircraft, (NLA) are studying 600 and 800 seater projects.
The selection of a 800 seater would leave a gap between it and existing aircraft families.
The preliminary design targets for the aircraft from the market analysis are:
- A 600 seater that could be enlarged to 800 seats, not exceeding the size of 80×80 m (size of a 747 is preferred) with an ovoid cross-section and 18 seats abreast.
- A range of 7000 nm for 600 and 6000 nm for 800 seats.
- Boings 777 seating standard.