Aircraft size selection is a result of traffic volume, frequency and competition. To evaluate the future fleet mix, the traffic growth has to be split in frequency growth, witch is limited by airport and airspace congestions, and in aircraft size growth.
Fig.: 2.4.1 Ref.:Al-[3]
With that split the average annual growth of aircraft size leads to the following wide-body open market breakdown:
Fig.: 2.4.2 Ref.: AI-[1]
The curves include the aircraft replacement forecast and exclude order backlogs.
If we now look at the needs for large aircraft from 1990 to 2009:
Fig.: 2.4.3 Ref.: HL/AI-[2J
There will theoretically be a market for about 860 UHCA, till the year 2009.